This project is ongoing. Descriptions, methods and results may be updated after further validation.
Research question
What is the role of distance, air connectivity and price competitiveness in international tourism demand for Brazil?
Motivation
Interest in the topic grew while teaching Tourism-related subjects in undergraduate courses in Penedo. The practical question is simple - what weighs most on foreign arrivals - being far away, having few flights or being expensive? - and the answer guides international promotion and aviation policy.
Data
- Monthly international arrivals by origin country, 2000–2025 (87 origins)
- Distance, air connectivity and relative prices
Methodology
- Gravity models estimated by PPML with fixed effects
- Robustness checks with leave-one-out exclusion of origins
Limitations
- Manuscript at the pre-submission stage; results will be released after peer review.
- Raw data are not redistributed; the pipeline downloads them from the official sources.
Implications
- International promotion, air network, connectivity and competitiveness.
- Destination planning and Embratur policies.
Planned applied products (possible outreach, subject to registration)
- Flow dashboards, maps and bulletins on tourism demand
- Applications for Penedo, the Lower São Francisco and Alagoas