This project is ongoing. Descriptions, methods and results may be updated after further validation.
Research question
Do seasonal bans and marine protected areas reduce fishing pressure or displace effort to neighbouring areas?
Motivation
Interest in fisheries economics grew while teaching the subject to Fisheries Engineering students at UFAL, Penedo, in 2026. Seasonal bans and protected areas are Brazil's main fisheries-management instruments, yet they are rarely evaluated with observed effort data.
Data
- Fishing effort by cell (Global Fishing Watch)
- Legal corpus of closure and marine-protected-area rules (26 regulations), structured as a knowledge base
Methodology
- Spatial difference-in-differences and placebo tests
- Vessel-level decomposition to separate coverage changes from real activity changes
Preliminary findings
Work in progress, version of 11 September 2026. Results are preliminary and have not yet been submitted to peer review. Do not cite as a final result. Check the latest version and the replication materials indicated on this page.
- Methodological contribution: changes in AIS and other tracking coverage can be mistaken for real changes in fishing activity; evaluations must separate the two.
Limitations
- Some cases (oceanic protected areas) do not yet allow causal identification with the available data.
- AIS tracking mainly covers the industrial fleet.
Implications
- Design and monitoring of closures and protected areas based on observed effort.
Planned applied products (possible outreach, subject to registration)
- Data cubes, dashboards, maps and bulletins
- Public knowledge base of closure regulations
- Tools for fishers, coastal communities, researchers and managers