This project is ongoing. Descriptions, methods and results may be updated after further validation.
Research question
How do marine heatwaves and changes in ocean productivity affect fishing effort along the Brazilian coast?
Motivation
Interest in fisheries economics grew while teaching the subject to Fisheries Engineering students at UFAL, Penedo, in 2026. Extreme thermal events are becoming more frequent, and the fleet's response - attraction, reduction or displacement - matters for coastal communities and fisheries management.
Data
- Fishing effort by cell and day (Global Fishing Watch), 2013–2024
- Sea-surface temperature (NOAA OISST) and ocean-productivity indices
Methodology
- Geospatial data cube (H3, Parquet/DuckDB)
- Cell-day panels with fixed effects and placebo tests
Preliminary findings
Work in progress, version of 11 September 2026. Results are preliminary and have not yet been submitted to peer review. Do not cite as a final result. Check the latest version and the replication materials indicated on this page.
- Moderate thermal anomalies and extreme events may produce distinct effects on the attraction, reduction or displacement of fishing effort.
Limitations
- Preliminary results; they should not be read as definitive causality.
- Observed effort depends on AIS tracking coverage, which varies over time.
Implications
- Warnings and planning for coastal communities and fisheries managers facing thermal events.
Planned applied products (possible outreach, subject to registration)
- Data cubes, dashboards, maps and bulletins
- Tools for fishers, coastal communities, researchers and managers