This project is ongoing. Descriptions, methods and results may be updated after further validation.
Research question
When a port suffers a physical shutdown, can the trade network absorb the shock or does regional economic activity fall?
Motivation
The 2024 floods in Rio Grande do Sul interrupted port operations on a rare scale. The episode makes it possible to observe how cargo, ships and municipalities react to an exogenous shock on a node of the trade network.
Data
- Berthings and waiting times by port (ANTAQ)
- Exports by municipality and port of exit
Methodology
- Event studies and difference-in-differences
- Trade-network analysis and PPML models
Preliminary findings
Work in progress, version of 11 September 2026. Results are preliminary and have not yet been submitted to peer review. Do not cite as a final result. Check the latest version and the replication materials indicated on this page.
- Sharp reduction in berthings and a marked increase in waiting times at the affected ports.
- Greater resilience of export value than of physical volume.
- Possible consolidation of cargo into fewer vessels.
- Greater vulnerability of municipalities that depend on a single port.
Limitations
- Private repository; code and data are not yet public.
- Preliminary results, subject to revision after further validation.
Implications
- Logistics contingency planning and diversification of exit ports.
Planned applied products (possible outreach, subject to registration)
- Port-dependence indicators by municipality